Dick Morris is right for once! (Posted by: Religio-Political Talk):
....Here’s the deal. The Times is weighting the raw survey data to reflect the ratio of Democrats to Republicans who voted in 2008. True, if we get the same massive turnout among minorities and young people that propelled Obama to victory in 2008, he will win this election and carry these states. But we won’t. All the polling shows that the electorate is now much more Republican and that GOP voters are much more motivated to turn out than their Democratic counterparts.
If we weight the Times results for the average turnout of the past four elections: 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010, we find Romney winning all three states. Republican pollster (the best of them all) John McLaughlin and I used exit polls from the past four elections to figure out how many Democrats and Republicans actually voted and then we averaged them together. Here are the real numbers:
FLORIDA
- NY Times results: Obama +1
- Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +7
- Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1
- Times overstates Dem vote by 8 points
Correct poll result: Romney +7
OHIO
- NY Times results: Obama +5
- Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8
- Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Dems +2
- Times overstates Dem vote by 6 points
Correct poll result: Romney +1
VIRGINIA
- NY Times results: Obama +2
- Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8
- Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1
- Times overstates Dem vote by 9 points
Correct poll result: Romney +7
And even these results don’t tell the full story. The Gallup Poll finds that the 2012 election will actually have more Republicans and fewer Democrats voting than any of the past four elections. In 2008, the electorate had 12 points more Democrats and Republicans....
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Another aspect is the voting blocks. Obama has all his blocks down. A great video to make the point is this one (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdTihf2_GGM&feature=share&list=UUKCXRhi-1Z4eCnsNJujlbmQ).
I think many are finally -- hopefully -- realizing in the inner cities
(even Michigan was tied up in the polls) that the monopolies of union
control over education and liberal policies in inner-cities that have
been in place for 40/50 years are to no avail. That they merely create a
victim class that are rendered powerless, except as pawns for political
purposes.
More: the Jewish vote is down (http://tinyurl.com/98ok3yo), the black vote (http://tinyurl.com/9uwyxmf), women (http://tinyurl.com/c62xfa8), young (http://tinyurl.com/925xenw)...
they are all down for the Dems. It doesn't mean they will vote for
Romney. It may mean they won't vote at all. But Republicans are more
jazzed about this vote than Dems (http://tinyurl.com/9joxzgj).