'More Probable than Not' That 'Deflate Gate' Report Raises Suspicion BUT Doesn't Prove Anything

Corwin Parks | May 8, 2015

(Photo: USA Today Sports)

 

On, May 6, independent investigator Ted Wells sent the NFL his findings from the 'Deflate Gate' scandal surrounding the New England Patriots and the inflation levels of their footballs during the 2014 AFC Championship game versus the Indianapolis Colts. More notably, three-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady, and two team equipment managers.

At this point, the news media and the sports media have been regurgitating the "opinions" of Wells as if they were proven facts and NOT merely interpretations. You have probably seen these excerpts all over your Facebook and Twitter feeds by now.

"VIII. Conclusions Regarding the Game Balls Used
by the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game


Based on the evidence developed in connection with the investigation and summarized in this Report, we have concluded that it is more probable than not that New England Patriots personnel participated in violations of the NFL Playing Rules and we're involved in a deliberate attempt to circumvent those rules. In particular, we conclude that it is more probable than not that Jim McNally and John Jastremski participated in a deliberate plan to circumvent the rules by releasing air from Patriots game balls after the examination of the footballs by NFL game officials at the AFC Championship Game. We believe that McNally and Jastremski were aware that the inflation level of the Patriots game balls following pre-game inspection by the game officials would be approximately 12.5 psi and planned for McNally to deflate the balls below that level following the pre-game inspection using a needle provided by Jastremski. Based on the evidence, we also have concluded that it is more probable than not that Tom Brady was at least generally aware of the inappropriate activities of McNally and  Jastremski involving the release of air from Patriots game balls."

These conclusions were derived from a series of text messages between the two equipment managers, Jim McNally and John Jastremski which date back to the offseason before the 2014 season up to the AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts.  There were also a series of texts and phone calls between Brady and Jastremski which take place after the AFC Championship game. You can find these in Wells’ report starting on page 74.

 

 

 

 

Sports media and even the news media have since been calling for the suspension and fines of Tom Brady or fines and the docking of draft picks for the Patriots. Most of those calls for punishment appear to have come from people who only read the executive summary, since they quote the same few things from it.

1. They quote the conclusion, where Wells stated, “it is more probable than not that New England Patriots personnel participated in violations of the NFL Playing Rules and we're involved in a deliberate attempt to circumvent those rules.”

2. They quote more of the conclusion where Wells stated, “it is more probable than not that Tom Brady was at least generally aware of the inappropriate activities of McNally and  Jastremski involving the release of air from Patriots game balls."

3. They use the term “deflator” which comes from a text message where McNally refers to himself as the “deflator.”

4. They use the term “needle,” which is in regards to a text message Jastremski sends to McNally saying “I have a big needle for u this week” to which McNally responds “Better be surrounded by cash and newkicks....or its a rugby sunday”

Taking a look at the conclusion and these four things, I’d think it would be safe to say that “it is more probable than not that New England Patriots personnel participated in violations of the NFL Playing Rules.” But, that’s if you ONLY look at these things.

In response to Wells’ report, Tom Brady’s agent, Don Yee, said:

“The Wells report, with all due respect, is a significant and terrible disappointment. It's omission of key facts and lines of inquiry suggest the investigators reached a conclusion first, and then determined so-called facts later.

One fact alone taints this entire report. What does it say about the league office's protocols and ethics when it allows one team to tip it off to an issue prior to a championship game, and no league officials or game officials notified the Patriots of the same issue prior to the game? This suggests it may be more probable than not that the league cooperated with the Colts in perpetrating a sting operation. The Wells report buries this issue in a footnote on page 46 without any further elaboration.

The league is a significant client of the investigators' law firm; it appears to be a rich source of billings and media exposure based on content in the law firm's website. This was not an independent investigation and the contents of the report bear that out -- all one has to do is read closely and critically, as opposed to simply reading headlines.

The investigators' assumptions and inferences are easily debunked or subject to multiple interpretations. Much of the report's vulnerabilities are buried in the footnotes, which is a common legal writing tactic. It is a sad day for the league as it has abdicated the resolution of football-specific issues to people who don't understand the context or culture of the sport.”

Yee does have a point. The conclusions of the report are based upon interpretations rather than actual facts. So, why are the media taking it just at face value rather than reading the actual report?

ESPN’s Mike and Mike interviewed Don Yee about his statement. Where they talk about Tom not giving up his phone for the investigation and what Tom’s day-long interview with Wells amounted to, and even why the league would go after Tom Brady, who as Mike Greenberg calls “the most popular player in the league.”

Seeing how Wells' report was based on his interpretation, I would like to offer my interpretation of the text messages that the report call into question. My interpretation is that Jastremski and McNally wanted to “over inflate” the footballs because they were mad at Brady.

10/16/2014 21:51:22 EDT

John Jastremski to [recovered-19] (McNally)

Tom is acting crazy about balls

10/16/2014 21:51:27 EDT

John Jastremski (508) to [recovered-19] (McNally)

Ready to vomit!

10/16/2014 21:53:04 EDT

[recovered-19] (McNally) to  John Jastremski

K

10/16/2014 21:53:04 EDT

[recovered-19] (McNally) to John Jastremski

He saying there not good enough??

10/16/2014 21:53:58 EDT

John Jastremski to  [recovered-19] (McNally)

Tell later

The next day the conversation continued.

10/17/201449 09:05:45 EDT

Bird (McNally) to  John Jastremski

Tom sucks...im going make that next ball a f***** balloon

10/17/2014 09:07:08

John Jastremski to Bird (McNally)

Talked to him last night. He actually brought you up and said you must have a lot of stress trying to get them done...

10/17/2014 09:07:37 EDT

John Jastremski to Bird (McNally) 

I told him it was. He was right though...

10/17/2014 09:08:07 EDT

John Jastremski to Bird (McNally) 

I checked some of the balls this morn... The refs f***** us...a few of then were at almost 16

10/17/2014 09:08:29 EDT

John Jastremski to Bird (McNally)

They didnt recheck then after they put air in them

10/17/2014 09:16:31 EDT

Bird (McNally) to John Jastremski

F*** tom ...16 is nothing...wait till next sunday

10/17/2014 09:16:52 EDT

John Jastremski to Bird (McNally)

Omg! Spaz

One of the questions that I have often asked since the AFC Championship game in regards to Deflate Gate is: if there is a minimum then there has to be a maximum, right? Anything outside the league rule, which is that the air pressure of the a football must between the parameters of 12.5 psi and 13.5 psi, should be looked at as cheating. If 11.2 psi is cheating then 16 psi must be as well, right? It would make sense. When Deflate Gate first broke, Aaron Rodger of the Green Bay Packers went on ESPN and said that he likes throwing footballs that are over inflated. Technically, that would be considered cheating as it infers using a football with inflation levels passed the league maximum.

Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports wrote an article where he says “Tom Brady probably isn't innocent in deflate-gate, but Wells Report fails to prove he's guilty.” Where Wetzel doesn’t take Brady’s as he does say that the report is “is damning for Tom Brady, very damning.” He then goes on to say, in regards to the conclusion of the report, “In other words: we're positive he cheated but we can't quite prove it.” The article shows some of the gaps in Wells' report and adds common sense to these interpretations.

Today, CNN had on Joe Theismann, the Super Bowl-winning former quarterback of the Washington Redskins, to talk about Tom Brady’s scandal. Theismann was asked if he thought Brady cheated, and his response was pretty compelling:

“I never have thought he's cheated. It's a very gray area when it comes to inflation or deflation of a football. Every quarterback has the way they like it to feel. After all, it's the tool of our trade. Everybody has different hand sizes, and everybody has different grips and weather plays into it, climate plays into it, altitude plays into it, the inflation or deflation of the ball. Listening to Tom last night and looking at him last night, he doesn't seem like a concerned individual when it comes to this particular situation.“

Theismann was also asked if agreed with a statement made by Tom Brady’s agent Don Yee in which Yee says:

“If we would have provided the phone or the text messages — you have to understand Tom is also a member of the union, the Commissioner’s office actually does not have any subpoena power. If a prominent player were to provide all of their private communications absent a subpoena, that sets a dangerous precedent for all players facing disciplinary measures.”

Theismann’s response was:

“I think he does have a point. I think he does have a point when it comes to privacy also. The other thing too is, when you look at the text messages cited in the Wells report, one of the guys basically says that he noticed the balls were at 16. Well, the national football league has a variance of 12.5 psi to 13.5 psi that the balls are legally able to be inflated to, and they referenced one at 16. So obviously there had to be air to come out of that to get it down to an exception level. So, I see contradictions through the text messaging, and by the way with text messaging, you and I could send a three minute text to one another, and anybody could take excerpt and interpret it any way they want. So to me this situation is more confusing than it is cleared up.”

Some are calling for suspension. Some even say a ban from football. If he does get suspended, it could be a win and a loss for the Pats and Pats fans. Loss: Tom Brady will not be playing who could hinder a playoff run, depending on the longevity of the suspension. Win: Pats fans would be able to see if Jimmy Garoppolo has what it takes to take over for TB12 when it comes time for 12 to hang up his cleats for good. What do you think? Is Tom the ringleader? Did he do anything wrong? Should he be punished and if so what should that be?