On June 28, 1914 a self-described terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. This act triggered what would be the bloodiest war the world had ever seen. Gavrilo Princip, the gunman who killed the heir to the Austrian-Hungarian Empire, did so with the eventual goal of forming a new state by means of terror.
Sound eerily familiar? It should, it is a stated goal of ISIS. While Princip acted out of fanatical nationalism and ISIS acts out of pure fanaticism, both situations have similarities. We could be at a seminal moment where history repeats itself. And like Princip, ISIS may be the spark that leads to something much bigger.
Recent developments in Syria have led many to predict this could be the beginning of World War III. Jordan’s King Abdullah II has warned that the fight against ISIS could be the "third world war against humanity." The pope warns of a “piecemeal” World War III. Israel has indicated as much as well. The comparisons do not end there.
Trying to keep track of the major players in the Syrian conflict is enough to make your head spin. The Bashar al-Assad Syrian government is fighting the rebels, ISIS, and the Kurds. The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Turkey want Assad gone. Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraq all support Assad. Turkey hates ISIS, the Kurds, and Russia. Al Qaeda’s affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra is fighting ISIS and almost everyone else. ISIS is fighting everyone.
Got it? As confusing as that seems, the beginning of World War I was equally as baffling.
Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. Russia came to the defense of Serbia. Germany came to the defense of Austria-Hungary. France fulfilled their treaty obligations and joined Russia. Britain came to the aid of France. That alliance brought the British colonies and dominions of Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and the Union of South Africa. Japan declared war on Germany because of an agreement with Britain. Italy, despite bound by an agreement to help Germany and Austria-Hungary, fought against them. The U.S. would enter the conflict later.
Did all these countries have a real stake in the outcome of a Serbia, Austria-Hungary conflict? No, probably not. Do some of the bigger players, namely NATO and Russia, in Syria have a real stake in who controls the country? Well, the answer is complicated. And, we may see a dramatic escalation to find the answer.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been itching to expand his homeland and flex military muscle. Europe and the rest of the world are so worried over Russian aggression that even Sweden, who has remained neutral in armed conflicts for over 200 years, is reportedly considering joining NATO.
And right in the crosshairs of Russian belligerence is Turkey.
The Turkey-Russia relationship has been icy in recent years. After Russia invaded Crimea, Turkey threatened a blockade of the Bosphorous Strait, an important shipping lane. And now with so much confusion and bad blood in the Syrian conflict relations have never arguably been worse.
Last month, strains ran high enough that the U.S. and NATO recently reiterated they would protect Turkey from Russia. With today’s news of Turkey downing a Russian plane, tensions are only going to increase as indicated by Russian President Vladimir Putin referring to Turkey as “terrorism accomplices.” Turkey was already considering invoking NATO’s Article 5 for support with ground troops in Syria. If Russia retaliates for their lost plane or any future military slight, Turkey will be forced to call on NATO.
Are we really going to let World War III start over Turkey? A country that helped Iran dodge sanctions? A country whose citizens booed a moment of silence held for the victims of the Paris terrorist attacks? Or who has called Israel a “terrorist state?” A country who still adamantly rejects labeling, by law, the 1915 Armenian genocide as "genocide?" A country that segregates and persecutes Christians? A country whose president declared that men and women are not equal and that Muslims discovered the Americas?
While Turkey might not be worth losing American lives for, Russia is still a threat.
Even if the U.S. can win a war against Russia, the victory would come at a steep cost. One nuclear deployment would be devastating beyond all horror. With the recent START III treaty being overwhelmingly favorable to Russia, many experts believe Russia has better nuclear weapons than the U.S. A conventional war would drag on for years and cost millions of lives.
We need real leadership before this situation spirals out of control. And, at the same time, enough American military power in the region needs to show Putin that we are prepared for any development.
Just hopefully, it is not too late.