KRISTEN WELKER: Steve, these are some truly stunning numbers.
STEVE KORNACKI: They really are, Kristen, and let's just start with the bottom line. When you ask folks, hey, if it's the general election and it’s Trump versus Biden, in our poll Donald Trump now leads Joe Biden by five points. Compare that to the last time we polled back in November, Trump was ahead then but it was only by two points. And it's even more significant when you look at it this way: over time, we have been testing for five years now- going back to 2019, a Biden-Trump matchup. Remember, 2019, 2020, Joe Biden led, he led big in every single one of our polls. For the first time in November, Donald Trump pulled ahead in our poll and now at five points, this is the biggest lead NBC has ever had in 16 polls for Donald Trump over Joe Biden. And of course, undergirding all of this is this question of- he is the incumbent, Joe Biden. We asked voters “what do you think of the job he's doing” and look at that, Kristen, 37% approve and now 60% disapprove.
WELKER: And we should say that is the lowest approval rating since former President George W. Bush's second term.
KORNACKI: Yeah, and put that in further context, too. Bush in his second term wasn't running for re-election. Here’s the presidents who were running for re-election in our poll. Starting their re-election year, what was their approval rating? Bush was over 50, he won. Obama was almost at 50, he won. Trump 4 years ago was 46, he lost. Look how low Biden's number is compared to those predecessors at this point.
WELKER: Their numbers all much bigger than president Biden's.
KORNACKI: Yeah. It shows you the improvement Biden has to make here in the coming months. The issues that are driving this, too, the economy, no surprise. We've been talking about it, but look at that advantage for Trump, 22 points…
WELKER: Wow.
KORNACKI: …and securing the border here, folks, a very important Trump with a 35-point advantage.
WELKER: The economy is so striking, Steve, because jobs are up, inflation is down- voters aren't giving him credit for that, clearly.